This observer was thinking that the SNP support in the poll was rather high at 47% (21/03/11) Nairnshire does have a high SNP support but we wondered perhaps if our fun poll has been inflated a little by the culture surrounding this blog which is a wee bittie SNP inclined at times.
We had a look at the results for this constituency at the last Holyrood election (2007) which is perhaps the nearest comparison you can get. Yes there are two votes, for the Constituency and across the Highlands for the list but we are focusing on the constituency turn-out last time round.
The SNP were on 41%, The LibDems 27%, Labour 19%, Conservative 11%
The Gurn’s 47% for the SNP doesn’t look too far-fetched compared with Fergus’s result back in 2007. The others were hardly in it at all with Eleanor Scott for the Greens losing her seat on the list back then. It could be that this time round the Greens might make a comeback and what happens if the UKIP support shown in the fun poll comes through with enough votes to give them an MSP? The idea of someone fighting for UK independence in the Scottish Parliament seems a bit odd really but it might happen.
The Gurn Poll does point to a Lib Dem collapse and it will be interesting to see where their votes go if that happens. One wonders too if a few Labour supporters will see the SNP as a better bet for Scotland over the next few years as the ConDems in London set about implementing their policies. Here’s what life long labour supporter and political columnist Joyce McMillan is going to do:
“And the question we face is just this: when the flack begins to fly, and Scotland’s free prescriptions and university fees need to be defended, and the vision of society that underpins them needs to be articulated with energy and pride and a touch of poetry – then who do we seriously think is going to face the world with the strongest, the most confident, and the most credible case for the path we are taking? Will it be Iain Gray and Andy Kerr? Or will it be Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, John Swinney and Mike Russell? It pains me to say it, but I think the answer to that question is clear. And although my heart will always say no to the SNP, this time around my head increasingly says yes; not just for the sake of Scotland, but for the sake of the whole idea of a convivial and democratic society, which needs doughty and capable defenders now, more than at any time in our history.”
You can read Joyce’s full article here: My hear says no, my head says yes.